Recently, the 2020 global solar market forecast released by IHSMarkit and other industry analysts shows that in the context of the continuous transformation of the global energy structure, the new installed capacity of renewable energy represented by solar power generation will steadily increase. Among them, it is expected that the global solar power installed capacity this year can exceed 140 gigawatts, an increase of nearly 15% from 2019. With the rapid development and maturity of the global solar industry, how will the market pattern change in 2020?

Demand drives the market to expand

As far as the forecast results have been published, industry analysts are optimistic about the new installed capacity of global solar power generation in 2020. Among them, the forecast data of the new energy research center EnergyTrend of Jibond Consulting is more conservative, that the total scale of new solar power installed in the world this year will be about 125 gigawatts; From 2020 to 2025, the global solar market will show a slight growth trend, an annual growth rate of about 7%. At the other end of the spectrum is IHSMarkit's bold forecast, which sees 142 gigawatts of new solar power installed globally in 2020, up about 14% from 2019.

It is worth mentioning that statistics show that in 2010, the global solar power installed capacity was only 20 gigawatts, and this year's estimated 142 gigawatts is more than ten times the total installed capacity of the year.

EdurneZoco, industry director for clean technology and renewable energy at IHSMarkit, is confident in the forecast. He said that from 2010 to 2019, technological innovation has driven costs down significantly in the decade, with the strong support of governments around the world, a large number of subsidies and favorable policies to promote the rapid development of the industry, gradually mature. This has laid a solid foundation for the development of the global solar market. In this context, the global solar market demand in 2020 will continue to rise and become more diversified. As a result, it is "not surprising" that the total number of new installations in the world this year has increased by double digits compared with last year.

Market concentration continues to decline

From the perspective of regional distribution, EnergyTrend analysis points out that the top five solar markets in the world in 2020 are China, the United States, India, Japan and the Netherlands. Since 2019, the traditional solar market in Europe, such as Spain and Germany, has begun to recover and is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2020. At the same time, due to the rise of emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, its market demand potential can not be underestimated, and Southeast Asia is expected to become the main growth momentum of the Asia-Pacific regional market.

IHSMarkit also lists China, the United States, Europe, and India as the focus of the global market this year, and believes that China will still retain the crown of the world's largest solar market.

IHSMarkit pointed out that at present, China's solar market demand is in a transition stage. From the policy adjustment in 2018 to the opening of the parallel era of bidding projects and affordable Internet access projects in 2019, the demand for China's solar market has fluctuated slightly, but it will eventually level off. It is expected that in 2020, China's solar market will continue the development trend of 2019, although the scale of new installed capacity is less than the peak in 2017, but it is still the world's largest solar market.

IHSMarkit stressed that large markets like China will continue to account for a larger share of new installations in the foreseeable future. But with the emergence of other emerging markets, the number of gigawatts will continue to increase, market concentration will continue to decrease, and the world's dependence on large markets will continue to decline.

IHSMarkit expects the share of the world's top 10 solar markets to decline from 94% in 2010 to 73% in 2020, a decline of more than 20 percentage points. At the same time, 43 countries will add more than gigawatts of solar power installed this year, and the geographical coverage is more extensive. In 2010, the number of global gigawatt market was only 7, and the distribution is relatively concentrated, mostly located in Europe.

EdurneZoco said that due to the rise of emerging markets, the global solar market landscape may change. However, the influence of major markets on the development of the global solar industry remains critical. As a test bed for technological innovation, policy development and the exploration of viable business models, the contribution of major markets is self-evident.

Innovation continues to drive costs down

In EdurneZoco's view, with the gradual reduction of power generation costs, solar power subsidy-free era is coming. Solar power will become a more competitive source of electricity, and its demand will rise accordingly. This will attract new players to the market.

The addition of new blood will undoubtedly lead to new competition. Many practitioners in the photovoltaic industry said that today, the industry is in the stage of consolidation, and the industry is highly competitive. The pressure of cost reduction forces enterprises to continuously develop new technologies, and innovation has become the top priority of enterprise development.

EnergyTrend believes that under the trend of affordable Internet access, the solar market is expected to show two major trends in 2020: one is the contention of a hundred schools of technology; Second, the series inverter will become the new darling of the global market.

In 2019, the most attention in the field of solar manufacturing is large-size silicon wafers. Large-size products have brought higher efficiency, and industry leaders have launched related products. However, EnergyTrend pointed out that because large-size silicon wafers involve equipment replacement problems of downstream battery and component manufacturers, most battery factory production lines have just completed the transformation and upgrading of PERC products in 2019, and it is expected that the probability of updating equipment in 2020 is less.

In terms of components, EnergyTrend said that any technology could become a potential technology for boosting efficiency, and it is expected that the wattages of component products will continue to increase, and 72-piece component products will move toward 450 watts.

In addition, EnergyTrend also said that as the world's major cluster inverter leaders have increased their research and development investment, cluster inverters have reversed the preference of medium and large projects for centralized inverters. It is expected that in 2020, the proportion of series inverters in the global market will increase, and its global share will exceed 50% in 2021.

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